Their last three games, graded on the same scale as your own roster. Everything below is read from the certified record — not what they run, but what they actually produce.
+306
Their team PBiR
across 3 games
222
Possessions
official-box estimate
46.1%
From the floor
80.2% at the line
1.45
Assist : turnover
48 against 33
Their eight most valuable players on this tape
+62
+58
+46
+42
+33
+28
+21
+9
Johnson
Mara
Lendeborg
Cadeau
Burnett
Gayle
McKenney
Tschetter
The one thing
Morez Johnson Jr. on the offensive glass
He produces 20% of this team's entire value at 0.82 a minute across 76 minutes, and offensive rebounding is his largest value source. Keep him off your defensive glass and you remove the strongest individual source on this tape.
The tape
Date
Score
W/L
Tennessee Volunteers
Mar 29
95–62
W
Arizona Wildcats
Apr 5
91–73
W
UConn Huskies
Apr 7
69–63
W
The whole tape, certified · three games
255
points scored
46.1%
from the floor
24 / 69
three-point
65 / 81
free throws
48
assists
33
turnovers
27
offensive rebounds
85
defensive rebounds
19
steals
17
blocks
50
fouls charged
198
points allowed
+33
margin vs Tennessee
+18
margin vs Arizona
+6
margin vs UConn
Scope. Rates publish at 30+ minutes and rank at 60+ across this 3-game tape. Anything below that is listed and left unrated. Published when supported, withheld when it is not — nothing missing is estimated.
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Page 2 · How to read this scout · Last 3 games
How to read this scout · read once
Read this page once. Every page after it makes sense.
This scout is built from the same certified engine that grades your own roster, pointed at Michigan instead of you. Everything in it is measured the same way, so you are comparing production against production.
What PBiR measures
PBiR converts each recorded basketball action into one value scale — what that action was worth to a possession. Actions that create, extend or finish a possession add value. Actions that waste or damage one subtract it. The box score records what happened; PBiR records what it was worth.
Why the last three games
A scout is about who you are facing now, not who they were in November. Three games is the most recent form the certified record supports without stretching into a different roster or a different rotation.
Two kinds of data, and they are not the same
Official-box data — points, rebounds, assists, minutes and the rest, taken from the verified box score. Complete for every game on this tape. Sequence-certified data — lineups, on/off, pairs, windows and runs, which need a complete event record. These publish only when the feed clears the certification gate. Where the two disagree, the official box governs and the disagreement is disclosed.
What “share of team value” means
Each man’s portion of the team’s net value across this tape. Not a share of points, not of minutes, not of possessions. If a player is 20% of a team’s value, one fifth of everything that team produced ran through him.
Why rates publish at 30 minutes and rank at 60
Those floors are derived from the distribution of real appearances, not chosen. Below 30 minutes across a three-game tape, one good or bad stretch swings a per-minute number so far that it stops describing the player. Such a man is still listed — with his counts — and simply not rated.
What “not published” means
The engine has the number and is declining to print it, because the sample behind it cannot carry the claim. It never means the data is missing, and it is never replaced with an estimate.
What this scout can tell you
What Michigan produces, who produces it, from where on the floor, in which stretches of a game, in which combinations, and what they give up.
What it cannot
What they run. The play record carries production, not play calls, not defensive assignments, not who guarded whom. Any page claiming otherwise would be guessing, and this engine does not guess.
Published when supported. Withheld when it is not. Nothing missing is estimated.
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Page 3 · Their DNA · Last 3 games
Their DNA · where their value comes from
You will know their DNA before you know their sets
Five strands, each measured in PBiR under the same law, no action counted twice. They sum to +306 — exactly this team's total across the tape, so the page proves its own arithmetic.
Strand
◀ value lostvalue added ▶
Margin
Scoring
−49 vs −182 · 46.1%
+133
The Line
65 of 81 · 80.2%
+47
Ball Security
48 assists · 33 turnovers
+38
Disruption
19 steals · 17 blocks
+27
Glass Margin
27 off · 85 def · +251 value produced
−46
Their strongest strand
Scoring · +133
When this one goes their way the rest of the record follows. Every win on this tape was decided here first — do not let them settle into it.
Their weakest strand
Glass margin · −46
Read it against the other figure: they produced +251 of glass value and still lost the glass comparison by 46. The teams they have played won this strand, and the record says you can too.
Possession arithmetic across the tape
222
Estimated possessions
74.0 a game
255
Points scored
85.0 a game
198
Points allowed
66.0 a game
+19.0
Average margin
3–0 on this tape
The page proves its own arithmetic
Strand total
Scoring
The line
Ball security
Disruption
The glass
Sum
Michigan
−49
−1
−3
+108
+251
+306
Their opponents
−182
−48
−41
+81
+297
+107
Margin
+133
+47
+38
+27
−46
+199
50
fouls charged
16.7
fouls a game
27.0
free throws a game
80.2%
when they get there
How to read it. A positive margin is a strand they win against the teams they play. A negative one is where those teams have already taken something from them — and the tape says you can too. Green is value added, red is value lost.
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Page 4 · Who creates their value · Last 3 games
Who creates their value
Every man they play, and what he is actually worth
Graded on the same scale as your own roster, so you are comparing production rather than reputation. The last two columns are where each man's value comes from, and where it leaks.
#
Player
Min
PBiR
Per min
Share
Largest value source
Largest value cost
1
Morez Johnson Jr.
76
+62
0.82
20%
offensive rebounding
turnovers
2
Aday Mara
78
+58
0.74
19%
two-point scoring
turnovers
3
Yaxel Lendeborg
85
+46
0.54
15%
two-point scoring
missed threes
4
Elliot Cadeau
97
+42
0.43
14%
assists
turnovers
5
Nimari Burnett
64
+33
0.52
11%
defensive rebounding
missed threes
6
Roddy Gayle Jr.
77
+28
0.36
9%
offensive rebounding
missed twos
7
Trey McKenney
75
+21
0.28
7%
defensive rebounding
missed threes
8
Will Tschetter
37
+9
0.24
3%
defensive rebounding
missed threes
Below the publishing line · listed, unrated under 30 minutes
9
Oscar Goodman
4
+7
not published
2%
defensive rebounding
turnovers
10
Charlie May
3
+6
not published
2%
defensive rebounding
fouls
11
Howard Eisley Jr.
3
−6
not published
−2%
three-point shooting
missed threes
The engine's finding
Four men carry 68% of this team — Johnson, Mara, Lendeborg and Cadeau. Three of the four leak value on turnovers. Johnson produces his value on the offensive glass; Mara and Lendeborg produce theirs through two-point scoring; Cadeau creates through assists. Pressure the entry and the second shot, and you are working on 68% of them at once.
Value produced for every minute on the floor
Morez Johnson Jr.
0.82
Aday Mara
0.74
Yaxel Lendeborg
0.54
Nimari Burnett
0.52
Elliot Cadeau
0.43
Roddy Gayle Jr.
0.36
Trey McKenney
0.28
Will Tschetter
0.24
599
minutes graded
8
men above the line
3
listed, unrated
68%
from four men
Share is each man's portion of the team's net value across this tape — not a share of points, minutes or possessions. A rate reads not published below 30 minutes: one short sample is not a rate.
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Page 5 · Their shot geography · Last 3 games
Their shot geography · 180 located attempts
Where their attempts come from, and which ones fall
Every located attempt across the tape, grouped by where it was taken. Share is the portion of their total attempts from that spot. Attempts that could not be attributed to a shooter are excluded from every player map.
Zone
Share of attempts
Made / att
Pct
At The Rim
55%
50 / 99
51%
Above The Break Three
28%
17 / 50
34%
Corner Three
11%
7 / 19
37%
Short Mid-Range
4%
4 / 7
57%
Long Two
3% — and it never missed
5 / 5
100%
Where they want the ball
At the rim · 55%
More than half of everything they take, at 51%. Wall it off and the rest of this page is all that is left of them.
Where they hurt people
Long two · 5 of 5
A small sample at a perfect rate, and three of the five belong to Trey McKenney. Concede this spot before you concede the rim.
Who takes the threes
Player
Attempts beyond the arc
Made / att
Yaxel Lendeborg
6 / 17
Trey McKenney
6 / 13
Elliot Cadeau
5 / 13
Nimari Burnett
2 / 9
Roddy Gayle Jr.
3 / 6
Will Tschetter
0 / 4
Who finishes at the rim
Aday Mara
17 / 26
Morez Johnson Jr.
10 / 15
Yaxel Lendeborg
11 / 18
Elliot Cadeau
5 / 18
How to use it. The zone with the largest share is where they want the ball. The zone with the highest percentage is where they hurt people. Those are rarely the same spot.
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Page 6 · The shot chart · Last 3 games
The shot chart · eight men above the line · 180 located attempts
The same 180 attempts, put back on the floor
Each zone is shaded by how often they shoot there; the figure inside it is what fell. The rim is darkest because it is both their biggest share and their reliable rate — everything else on this floor is a trade you can offer them. These are team totals across the tape — eight men above the publishing line, with three more listed and unrated — and the ledger names who takes the most in each zone.
Corner threes split 4 / 11 left and 3 / 8 right · 7 of 19 combined at 37% · Mara, Johnson and Lendeborg take 59 of the 99 rim attempts · the free-throw marker is drawn at the line, not on the floor — free throws carry no shot location
Zone ledger · team totals · made / att
At the rim
55% share
50 / 99
51%
Above the break
28% share
17 / 50
34%
Corner three
11% share
7 / 19
37%
Short mid
4% share
4 / 7
57%
Long two
3% share
5 / 5
100%
At the line · 65 / 81 · 80.2%
Marked at the free-throw line on the floor, never plotted as a shot — free throws carry no location. Darker shading means a larger share of attempts, not a better rate; orange marks the figures whose rate outruns their volume.
Inside the arc
59 of 111 · 53%
Nearly 62% of their located attempts come from inside the arc, and it is the only part of the floor where they beat a coin flip.
Beyond the arc
24 of 69 · 35%
Thirty-nine per cent of their attempts at a rate that does not punish you. This is the trade to offer.
The one spot to deny
Left elbow long two
Five attempts, five makes, three of them Trey McKenney. Small sample, perfect record — do not let it grow.
The same floor, game by game
Game
Rim · two · three, share of attempts
Rim made
Three made
At the line
Tennessee
Mar 29 · W 95–62 · 66 attempts
21 / 38
9 / 24
24 / 30
Arizona
Apr 5 · W 91–73 · 63 attempts
19 / 35
9 / 23
22 / 27
UConn
Apr 7 · W 69–63 · 51 attempts
10 / 26
6 / 22
19 / 24
Their rim share fell from 58% to 51% and their rim rate from 55% to 38% in the one close game on this tape — and they went to the line 24, 22 and 19 times, converting 65 of 81 across the three, 80.2%.
Zone boundaries follow the certified location feed. Attempts without a usable coordinate are excluded from this floor and from every percentage on it — 180 of their 186 attempts are plotted here. Free throws are not located attempts and never appear on this floor; they are carried in the table above, 65 of 81 at 80.2%.
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Page 7 · What they allow · Last 3 games
What they allow · every opponent attempt on this tape
Where you can attack them.
Pages 5 and 6 showed where Michigan shoots. This page is the other half of the scout — every shot their opponents took across this tape, and how many fell. This is your entry point.
Allowed by distance
Rate allowed · read
Made / att
Pct
At the rim
all 12 classified attempts fell
12 / 12
100%
3 to 9 feet
the floor gets contested here
15 / 38
39%
10 to 16 feet
their best-defended area on the floor
2 / 26
8%
17+ feet, two
low volume, low return
2 / 8
25%
Beyond the arc
highest volume allowed, lowest reward
20 / 76
26%
Unstated distance
distance field empty in the feed
20 / 55
36%
Allowed by side of the floor
37%
middle · 55 / 147
32%
left · 11 / 34
15%
right · 5 / 34
The area they protect best
10 to 16 feet · 2 of 26 · 8%
Nothing on this tape has worked from there, and jump shots generally are 2 of 22. If your offence lives in the middle of the floor, this tape says it will not get paid.
Where opponents went, and what came back
Their right side · 5 of 34 (offense’s point of view)
Volume went there and results did not follow. Thirty-four attempts is a small sample, and 15% could as easily be shot selection as defensive strength — test it early rather than build a game plan on it. Left and right are stated from the offence’s point of view.
What the feed could not place
20 of 55 · distance unstated
Fifty-five allowed attempts carry no distance in the certified feed. They are printed here at 36% rather than pushed into a zone that would flatter or damage the rest of the table.
Allowed by shot type
Dunk
5 / 8
62%
Hook
8 / 14
57%
Step-back
3 / 6
50%
Tip-in
7 / 14
50%
Driving layup
11 / 24
46%
Layup
9 / 21
43%
Floater
3 / 8
38%
Three
17 / 66
26%
Pull-up
4 / 20
20%
Turnaround
2 / 12
17%
Jumper
2 / 22
9%
The honest entry point
Get all the way to the rim — do not settle in the middle
All 12 opponent attempts classified at the rim fell — their defence did not produce a stop on any of them. The sample is limited, but it is the clearest area to test early. Everything between 10 and 16 feet is where possessions go to die.
These are shots allowed, not defensive assignments. The record does not say who was guarding, whether a rotation was late, or whether a shot was contested. These two tables read different fields of the same record: where a shot carries no stated distance it appears in the type table only, which is why beyond the arc reads 20 of 76 by distance and 17 of 66 by type.
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Page 8 · Five-player units · Last 3 games
Five-player units · three games · shown at 4+ possessions
Which combinations actually work.
Units are shown at four or more reconstructed possessions and ranked at eight or more, derived from real lineup distributions on this tape — where the busiest unit in a single game sees roughly eleven possessions.
Unit
Poss
PBiR
Value produced
Mara / Cadeau / Johnson Jr. / Burnett / Lendeborg
31
+50
Cadeau / Johnson Jr. / Burnett / Gayle Jr. / Lendeborg
15
+45
Mara / Cadeau / Gayle Jr. / McKenney / Lendeborg
17
+33
Mara / Cadeau / Gayle Jr. / Tschetter / Lendeborg
5
+26
Mara / Johnson Jr. / Gayle Jr. / McKenney / Lendeborg
14
+26
Cadeau / Johnson Jr. / Burnett / Gayle Jr. / McKenney
5
+14
The read
Their most-used unit is also their most productive
Mara / Cadeau / Johnson / Burnett / Lendeborg — 31 possessions at +50, the largest sample of any combination they ran on this tape.
Note the pattern
Lendeborg is in five of the six units shown
Whoever else is out there, he is on the floor when the value is produced. The on/off and pairs pages show the same thing from two other angles.
Note the second pattern
Cadeau is in five of six as well
Their two most present men in productive lineups are a point guard and a forward. Breaking that pairing matters more than stopping either one.
The units page in five figures
31
possessions, largest unit sample
+50
that unit, best on the tape
5 of 6
units contain Lendeborg
5 of 6
units contain Cadeau
11
possessions, busiest unit in one game
Three games is a small sample for five-man units. These are shown because they are what the tape supports; they are directional rather than conclusive, and a unit is an association — five men share every possession.
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Page 9 · On / off · Last 3 games
On / off · three games · every rotation player, sample stated
What changes when he sits.
Team production per minute with each man on the floor, against the same figure with him off it — measured across the three games on this tape, with the minutes behind every row printed beside it.
Player
Minutes
On
Off
Swing
Net
Yaxel Lendeborg
86.0
+2.67
+2.18
+0.49
Aday Mara
78.2
+2.65
+2.32
+0.33
Elliot Cadeau
98.2
+2.54
+2.52
+0.02
Roddy Gayle Jr.
76.5
+2.52
+2.55
−0.03
Trey McKenney
75.7
+2.38
+2.80
−0.42
Morez Johnson Jr.
74.2
+2.27
+2.97
−0.70
The read
Lendeborg carries the largest positive swing, Johnson the largest negative
+0.49 against −0.70. Michigan’s rate was higher with their leading value producer off the floor across this tape. Both statements are true and they are not in conflict: Johnson produces a great deal himself, and the units around him produced more without him.
Read this before you plan around the page
No player on this tape reaches 100 minutes. On / off across three games is directional, not conclusive, and it is an association rather than proof of cause — substitution patterns and opponent quality live inside these numbers. Test it before you plan around it.
Lendeborg · individual PBiR by game — not components of the swing
+34
Tennessee
+18
Arizona
−6
UConn, 36 minutes
86.0
his minutes on this tape
+0.49
his swing a minute
On / off is sequence-certified data drawn from the three tape games only. It describes the team’s rate while a man played, not his own production, and no row on this page clears the 100-minute floor at which the engine would rank it.
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Page 10 · Two-player pairs · Last 3 games
Two-player pairs · three games · shared minutes stated
Which two together.
Team value per minute while each pair shared the floor on this tape. These are team figures during shared minutes — not the two players’ own production — and they overlap, so they cannot be added.
Pair
Minutes
Team value a minute
Rate
Cadeau + Lendeborg
71.8
+2.77
Mara + Cadeau
63.1
+2.63
Johnson Jr. + Cadeau
59.2
+2.48
Cadeau + Gayle Jr.
59.6
+2.45
Cadeau + McKenney
55.7
+2.30
Johnson Jr. + Lendeborg
57.9
+2.19
The read
Cadeau appears in five of the six pairs shown
The best rate belongs to Cadeau and Lendeborg at +2.77 across 71.8 minutes — the most time any two of them spent together on this tape, and the same two men the units page keeps returning.
The decision this page supports
Break up a combination rather than stop a man
If your rotation can separate Cadeau and Lendeborg, this tape says you are attacking the pairing that appears together in four of the six productive units shown on page 8.
How to read the figures
Every figure here is the team’s rate during shared minutes, so a pair inherits the other three men on the floor with it. Pairs overlap heavily — Cadeau is in five of the six rows — so the rows describe the same minutes from different angles and must not be summed.
What the pairs table rests on
5 of 6
pairs contain Cadeau
71.8
largest shared sample, minutes
+2.77
best rate a minute
+0.58
spread, best pair to worst
3
games behind every row
Pairs are sequence-certified data from the three tape games. Association, not causation: the other three men on the floor are inside every figure on this page, and no pair on this tape clears 100 shared minutes.
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Page 11 · Ten-minute windows · Last 3 games
Ten-minute windows · pooled across the tape
When they are most dangerous.
Each game divided into four ten-minute windows across two halves, pooled across the tape. Overtime actions are assigned to the closing window.
Window
Pts
Allow
Margin
Net
Shooting
TO
Off reb
Opening ten
56
42
+14
20/48 · 42%
6
11
Final ten of the half
73
45
+28
23/52 · 44%
4
9
First ten after half
70
48
+22
25/46 · 54%
9
4
Closing ten
56
63
−7
15/34 · 44%
15
7
The finding
Michigan wins the game before the last ten minutes
They are +28 in the final ten of the first half and +22 in the first ten after the break — a +50 margin across those two windows — and then they are −7 in the closing ten.
Their most efficient stretch
Right after halftime · 25 of 46 · 54%
Their best shooting of any window on this tape, and the second half of the +50 swing either side of the break.
Their weakest stretch, and why
The finish · 15 turnovers
Their largest turnover total of any single window — 15, nearly half of the sequence-recorded turnovers. Their offensive rebounding does not sustain its opening-window level either: 11, 9, 4 and 7 across the four.
What this supports
This confirms the runs page rather than repeating it. All three of their biggest runs started in the first half, and this page shows why — that is when their margin is actually built.
What to do with it
Survive the stretch either side of halftime
The tape says the game is still there at the end. They have not closed well on it, and they have given the ball away doing it.
Turnovers by window — where the finish goes wrong
6
opening ten
4
final ten of the half
9
first ten after half
15
closing ten
34
across the tape
Windows are sequence-certified data. Overtime actions are pooled into the closing window, which is the one place on this page where the sample is not four equal tens. The sequence record contains 34 turnover events, one more than the official-box total of 33. The official-box total of 33 governs; the windows below sum to 34, and the one-event difference is disclosed rather than absorbed.
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Page 12 · Opponent intel · 1–4 of 8 · Last 3 games
Opponent intel · their 1 through 4
The four who decide it
68% of their value
Morez Johnson Jr.
#21 · F
Their #1 of 8 · 76 minutes
+62
PBiR · 0.82 a minute
20%
of their value
34
pts 10/17
22
reb · 9 off
4
ast · 4 TO
3
1 stl 2 blk
Every located attempt · rim 10/15 · above break 0/2
0.45
points a minute
0.29
rebounds a minute
0.05
assists a minute
Share of their +306
20%
Value from offensive rebounding. Value lost on turnovers. Nine of his 22 boards came off their own miss; box him off your glass and his largest source disappears — he is still 5 of 7 on layups and 2 of 2 on dunks.
He is the largest individual driver of a team glass strand that produced +251, even as their glass margin against opponents is −46.
Aday Mara
#15 · C
Their #2 of 8 · 78 minutes
+58
PBiR · 0.74 a minute
19%
of their value
45
pts 19/29
17
reb · 3 off
4
ast · 8 TO
7
2 stl 5 blk
Every located attempt · rim 17/26 · above break 1/2 · short mid 1/1
0.58
points a minute
0.22
rebounds a minute
0.05
assists a minute
Share of their +306
19%
Value from two-point scoring — 65% at the rim. Value lost on turnovers, eight against four assists. Make him catch it a step further out.
Five blocks in 78 minutes.
Yaxel Lendeborg
#23 · F
Their #3 of 8 · 85 minutes
+46
PBiR · 0.54 a minute
15%
of their value
51
pts 17/36
12
reb · 5 off
6
ast · 1 TO
5
2 stl 3 blk
Every located attempt · rim 11/18 · above break 4/14 · corner 2/3 · short mid 0/1
0.60
points a minute
0.14
rebounds a minute
0.07
assists a minute
Share of their +306
15%
Value from two-point scoring. Value lost on missed threes — 4 of 14 above the break. Their leading scorer on this tape and the least efficient shooter among their top three value producers.
Six assists against one turnover, though — he will punish a double rather than force through it.
Elliot Cadeau
#3 · G
Their #4 of 8 · 97 minutes
+42
PBiR · 0.43 a minute
14%
of their value
40
pts 13/35
11
reb · 2 off
22
ast · 10 TO
9
8 stl 1 blk
Every located attempt · rim 5/18 · above break 4/12 · short mid 2/3 · corner 1/1 · long two 1/1
0.41
points a minute
0.11
rebounds a minute
0.23
assists a minute
Share of their +306
14%
Value from assists — 22 of them, plus 8 steals. Value lost on turnovers and 5-of-18 at the rim. Let him finish; do not let him pass.
Ninety-seven minutes is the most on this tape: he is on the floor for almost everything they run.
Rates publish at 30+ minutes across this tape and rank at 60+. Green is value added, red is value lost.
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Page 13 · Opponent intel · 5–8 of 8 · Last 3 games
Opponent intel · their 5 through 8
The rest of the rotation
30% of their value
Nimari Burnett
#4 · G
Their #5 of 8 · 64 minutes
+33
PBiR · 0.52 a minute
11%
of their value
20
pts 4/13
15
reb · 2 off
4
ast · 3 TO
4
4 stl 0 blk
Every located attempt · corner 1/6 · rim 2/4 · above break 1/3
0.31
points a minute
0.23
rebounds a minute
0.06
assists a minute
Share of their +306
11%
Value from defensive rebounding — 15 boards in 64 minutes from a guard. Value lost on missed threes, 1 of 6 from the corner.
Four steals and no blocks on this tape.
Roddy Gayle Jr.
#11 · G
Their #6 of 8 · 77 minutes
+28
PBiR · 0.36 a minute
9%
of their value
21
pts 7/17
11
reb · 5 off
4
ast · 3 TO
4
0 stl 4 blk
Every located attempt · rim 4/11 · corner 2/3 · above break 1/3
0.27
points a minute
0.14
rebounds a minute
0.05
assists a minute
Share of their +306
9%
Value from offensive rebounding — 5 of his 11 boards. Value lost on missed twos, 4 of 11 at the rim. The second crasher behind Johnson.
Four blocks and no steals on this tape — unusual for a guard.
Trey McKenney
#1 · G
Their #7 of 8 · 75 minutes
+21
PBiR · 0.28 a minute
7%
of their value
37
pts 11/24
11
reb · 0 off
2
ast · 3 TO
2
1 stl 1 blk
Every located attempt · above break 6/12 · rim 1/6 · long two 3/3 · short mid 1/2 · corner 0/1
0.49
points a minute
0.15
rebounds a minute
0.03
assists a minute
Share of their +306
7%
Value from defensive rebounding, but he is the jump shooter on this tape: 6 of 12 above the break and 3 of 3 on long twos. Do not leave him.
Zero offensive rebounds in 75 minutes.
Will Tschetter
#42 · F
Their #8 of 8 · 37 minutes
+9
PBiR · 0.24 a minute
3%
of their value
2
pts 0/5
9
reb · 1 off
2
ast · 0 TO
0
0 stl 0 blk
Every located attempt · corner 0/3 · above break 0/1 · rim 0/1
0.05
points a minute
0.24
rebounds a minute
0.05
assists a minute
Share of their +306
3%
Value from defensive rebounding, his largest source — 0 for 5 from the floor across the tape. Value lost on missed threes. Help off him.
Two assists and zero turnovers: he will not beat you, but he will not give it away either.
Three men below the publishing line — Goodman, May and Eisley Jr. — are listed on page 4 and left unrated. Nothing missing is estimated.
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✓ Certified PBiR data · Page 13 of 16
THE POSSESSION REPORT
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Page 14 · The tape · Last 3 games
The tape · read from the certified play record
They win these games in bursts — here are the bursts
Thirteen runs of six or more unanswered points across three games; they conceded five. Survive the run and you are in a different game than the scoreboard suggests.
Game 1 of 3 · Mar 29 · W
vs Tennessee Volunteers
95–62
34
largest lead · trailed by 3
7
lead changes · 5 ties
4
their runs of 6+
2
runs conceded
Their biggest run · 21–0
10:52 to 6:10 of the first half, ending 35–16. The game was decided inside five minutes. Where it turned: 10:13 left in the first half — the last time Tennessee led.
Game 2 of 3 · Apr 5 · W
vs Arizona Wildcats
91–73
30
largest lead · never trailed
0
lead changes · 0 ties
7
their runs of 6+
2
runs conceded
Their biggest run · 8–0
18:20 to 17:34 of the first half, ending 10–1. No lead change and no tie in forty minutes — the opening exchange settled it, and seven separate runs of six or more followed.
Game 3 of 3 · Apr 7 · W
vs UConn Huskies
69–63
11
largest lead · trailed by 3
6
lead changes · 8 ties
2
their runs of 6+
1
run conceded
Their biggest run · 6–0
3:16 to 2:31 of the first half, ending 29–25. Eight ties and six lead changes — the most contested game on this tape and the template for beating them. Where it turned: 3:06 left in the first half, Yaxel Lendeborg lays it in off an Aday Mara assist for 27–25, the last of the six.
The pattern
Every one of their biggest runs on this tape started in the first half, and two of the three inside the opening eleven minutes. In the one close game on this tape — eight ties against UConn — their run count fell to two, against the seven they produced against Arizona, and the margin fell from 30 to 6.
Sequence findings derive only from games whose event feeds passed the integrity gate. All three games on this tape passed.
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✓ Certified PBiR data · Page 14 of 16
THE POSSESSION REPORT
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Page 15 · Keys to the game · Last 3 games
Keys · what the record says
Where you take it away
Every key below is drawn from the certified tape, not from opinion. Each one names the figure it rests on so your staff can check it.
01
Take Morez Johnson Jr. off the offensive glass
He produces 20% of the team’s value, and offensive rebounding is his largest value source. Keep him off your defensive glass and you remove the strongest individual source on this tape. Nothing else on this tape moves their number as much.
9 of 22
boards off their miss
02
Make them win it on the glass
Their weakest strand against the teams they have already played. The record says it has been taken from them before.
−46
glass margin
03
Do not let them settle into scoring
Their strongest strand. When this one goes their way, the rest of the record follows it.
+133
scoring margin
04
Their ball goes to the rim
More than half of every attempt they took on this tape, at 51%. Wall it off and they are a jump-shooting team by default.
55%
of all attempts
05
Survive the first half
All three of their biggest runs began before the break. In the one close game on this tape their run count fell to two, against seven produced in the Arizona game.
13
runs of 6+ in 3 games
06
Pressure Mara, Johnson and Cadeau
Mara, Johnson and Cadeau account for 22 of their 33 turnovers. Pressure the entry pass and the leak is already there.
22 of 33
turnovers, three men
What this page will not do. It will not tell you what they run. The play record carries production, not schemes or defensive assignments — so these keys are about where their value comes from, and where the record says it can be taken. Published when supported. Withheld when it is not. Nothing missing is estimated.
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✓ Certified PBiR data · Page 15 of 16
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Page 16 · The scout's read · Last 3 games
The scout's read · everything, said once
The whole opponent, in plain English
Everything in this report, said once, in the order a staff would say it in a room.
What Michigan is
A team that produces +306 across three games and wins on scoring, +133 against the teams it plays. They shoot 46.1% from the floor, get to the line often and convert at 80.2%, and turn 48 assists against 33 turnovers. Their weakest strand is the glass margin, −46 — the one door this tape leaves open.
Who drives it
Four men carry 68% of them — Johnson, Mara, Lendeborg and Cadeau. Johnson is 20% of everything on his own, and the offensive glass is his largest source. Three of those four leak value on turnovers.
Which combinations matter
Cadeau appears in five of the six pairs shown, and Lendeborg carries their largest on/off swing — +0.49 across 86 minutes on this tape, against Johnson’s −0.70. Their best pair is Cadeau and Lendeborg at +2.77 a minute over 71.8 shared minutes.
Where their offence comes from
55% of everything they take is at the rim, at 51%. 28% comes from above the break at 34%. Mara, Johnson and Lendeborg take 59 of their 99 rim attempts. Beyond the arc they are 24 of 69 — 35%, and that is the trade to offer.
What their defence allows
All 12 opponent attempts classified at the rim fell. But 10 to 16 feet is 2 of 26, 8%, and jump shots generally are 2 of 22. From the offense’s point of view, Michigan’s right side allowed 5 of 34.
When they are most dangerous
The final ten of the first half and the first ten after it — a +50 margin across those two windows. They are −7 in the closing ten with 15 turnovers.
What changed when the UConn game stayed close
Their rim share fell from 58% to 51% and their rim rate from 55% to 38%. Lendeborg went from +34 and +18 in the first two games to −6 on 36 minutes in the championship — he scored 13 and still cost them value. Johnson went the other way: +13, +20 and then +29 PBiR, his best grade on the tape.
What the tape proves
—
Michigan’s value is concentrated in four men, and one of them is a rebounder.
—
They build their margin either side of halftime, not at the finish.
—
Their offence lives at the rim, and the rim is where their defence has been least effective on this tape.
—
Lendeborg’s presence moves their number more than anyone’s, on a three-game sample that is directional rather than conclusive.
What the staff should test
—
Whether their right side is genuinely soft or whether 34 attempts flatter it.
—
Whether the closing-ten turnovers are pressure-related or fatigue.
—
Whether keeping Johnson off the offensive glass actually moves their number, or whether he finds it elsewhere.
—
Whether the stretch with Lendeborg on the bench is as exploitable as the on/off suggests.
What this report cannot claim
—
It does not know what they run. No play calls, no sets, no coverages.
—
It does not know who guarded whom. The record carries no defensive assignments.
—
It cannot say a lineup or a pair caused a result. Five men share every possession.
—
It is three games. It is the most recent evidence, not the whole truth of a season.
The one-sentence version
Keep them off the rim and off their own glass, live with the three, and make them play the last ten minutes with the ball in their hands.
Published when supported. Withheld when it is not. Nothing missing is estimated.